By Sunday Apah
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria faced a web of fiscal distortions, multiple exchange rates, a costly petrol subsidy that drained public finances, declining oil production, and mounting pressure on the naira and living costs.
His administration’s response was swift and structural. The removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign-exchange market became the defining early decisions.
These moves triggered immediate pain for households and businesses, but they also unlocked resources and set the stage for a series of measurable shifts across the economy, infrastructure, education, and other sectors.
Nearly three and a half years later, the public record shows a combination of hard-won stabilisation metrics, expanded capital projects, and new social programmes alongside the continuing challenge of translating macroeconomic gains into broad relief for ordinary Nigerians.
Fiscal Reset and Economic Indicators
The most frequently cited achievements centre on public finances. Government statements and supporting data point to a sharp rise in non-oil revenue. Collections surpassed the 2025 target of over ₦20 trillion by August of that year, with individual months such as September 2025 recording ₦3.65 trillion—hundreds of percentage points higher than comparable periods in 2023.
The debt service-to-revenue ratio, previously reported near 97 percent, was brought down toward or below 50 percent in subsequent updates. The administration also reduced the Central Bank’s “Ways and Means” advances that had previously contributed to inflationary pressures.
Higher federation revenues translated into larger monthly FAAC allocations to states and local governments. This fiscal space enabled many states to expand capital spending on roads, agriculture, and social services. External reserves recovered and were reported in the mid-to-high $40 billion to low $50 billion range at various points in 2025 and 2026, providing a stronger buffer.
The country recorded consecutive quarterly trade surpluses, with non-oil exports growing as a share of total trade. Oil production, which had dipped near one million barrels per day, climbed back toward 1.6–1.7 million barrels per day. The stock market experienced a multi-year rally, with the All-Share Index rising substantially from the levels of mid-2023.
GDP growth improved, with quarterly figures in the 3.8–4.4 percent range reported in parts of 2025 and 2026. The non-oil sector accounted for the overwhelming majority of output. Inflation, after peaking above 30 percent, moderated significantly from those highs, though food and energy prices remained elevated for many households. The administration has described these trends as evidence that the most disruptive phase of adjustment has given way to a more stable foundation for growth.
Infrastructure Expansion
Infrastructure has been a visible priority. The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway stands as a flagship corridor. Sections of the Lagos stretch were opened to traffic, with significant financing closed for early phases. Progress continued on the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway, the Abuja–Kaduna–Zaria–Kano axis, portions of the East-West Road, and numerous other federal highways and bridges. Government figures have cited more than 2,700 kilometres of roads under construction, reconstruction, or rehabilitation at various stages. Rail projects, including the Kano–Katsina–Maradi standard-gauge line and Kaduna–Kano segments, advanced. Ports and aviation facilities also received attention as part of broader logistics improvements.
These projects are presented not merely as construction but as economic corridors intended to lower the cost of moving goods, open agricultural zones, and support industrial clusters. Complementary investments in power-sector reform under the Electricity Act allowed states to begin developing their own electricity markets. Peak generation figures rose, and rural electrification programmes using solar technology expanded access in underserved communities. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) infrastructure and vehicle conversion initiatives were rolled out as part of efforts to diversify transport energy sources and reduce dependence on petrol.
Education, Human Capital and Social Support
One of the more widely noted social interventions is the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND). Following the Student Loan Acts of 2023 and 2024, the scheme began disbursing interest-free loans for tuition and upkeep. By late 2026, reported cumulative disbursements exceeded ₦370 billion, covering fees paid directly to hundreds of institutions and upkeep allowances for large numbers of students. Beneficiary figures cited in official updates range from several hundred thousand to more than 1.5 million depending on the reporting window. The programme removed earlier family-income thresholds and guarantor requirements, broadening access.
The national minimum wage was raised from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000, with a shorter review cycle. Education and health budget allocations increased substantially in nominal terms. Primary healthcare centres underwent revitalisation programmes, with hundreds upgraded and further targets announced. Specialist facilities, including cancer treatment centres, were commissioned. Social cash-transfer and consumer-credit schemes reached millions of households, while various youth skills and empowerment programmes continued under the broader Renewed Hope framework.
Energy, Agriculture, Security and Broader Impacts
Oil and gas recovery formed another pillar. Production gains, reduced theft through improved metering and security arrangements, and the return of local refining capacity were highlighted. Nigeria was reported to have become a notable exporter of aviation fuel at certain points. Agriculture received support through fertiliser distribution, dry-season farming initiatives, and mechanisation efforts aimed at boosting domestic food production and lowering prices over time. Solid minerals activity showed growth in specific segments such as coal.
On security, the administration reported intensified operations against banditry, terrorism, and kidnapping, with figures released on hostages freed, hostiles neutralised, weapons recovered, and criminal networks disrupted. Coordination across agencies and community engagement were emphasised as complementary approaches.
Higher FAAC inflows gave states greater capacity to fund their own priorities. Investor sentiment, as reflected in capital importation figures and credit-rating outlooks at various points, improved relative to the immediate pre-2023 period. The administration has framed the overall trajectory as a shift from crisis management to the early stages of a more resilient, diversified economy.
The Continuing Reality Check
These reported gains sit alongside well-documented costs. The sudden removal of the fuel subsidy produced a steep rise in petrol prices, which fed into transport, food, and general living costs. Many households and small enterprises experienced real hardship for an extended period. Inflation, even after moderating from its peak, continued to erode purchasing power. Security challenges persisted in several regions. Project execution timelines, power reliability, and the speed with which macroeconomic improvements reach the average citizen remain subjects of ongoing debate and scrutiny.
The administration itself has characterised 2026 as the beginning of a more robust growth phase, with priorities shifting toward lowering production and logistics costs so that price relief can reach consumers, expanding agricultural output, completing major corridors, and sustaining social programmes such as student loans and primary healthcare upgrades.
Looking at the Full Picture
President Tinubu’s record is defined by a willingness to undertake high-cost structural reforms that improved fiscal metrics, external buffers, and the scale of infrastructure and education interventions. Non-oil revenue mobilisation, larger transfers to states, student loan disbursements, highway and rail progress, minimum-wage adjustment, and oil-production recovery form the core of the publicly documented achievements. The parallel story of adjustment costs—higher energy prices, elevated living expenses, and the time lag before broad-based relief—remains equally part of the national experience.
Nigerians will continue to judge these outcomes against the daily realities of food prices, power supply, security, job opportunities, and the credibility of future delivery. The data and projects outlined above provide a substantial body of evidence on what has been attempted and what has been recorded so far. Independent verification, local impact assessments, and sustained tracking of costs versus benefits will determine how this chapter is ultimately evaluated.
